Guide

Analytics models are centered on the “protagonist”: the beneficiary or customer of the program.

Start by mapping the steps the protagonist must take to reach a desired outcome. Model the “events” the protagonist must experience or perform to move from their current state to the desired state. Then add the activities that make the protagonist more likely to reach that outcome.

Each event or activity block is a discrete step in the pathway, and can be given a quantitative input-output relationship, a probability, or a modifier function. The result is a diagram that clearly communicates the program’s logic and how it solves the problem, with the added ability to predict impact, run sensitivity analysis, and estimate uncertainty.

Step 01

Build the diagram

The pieces

There are four essential pieces for analytics modeling:

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01The Protagonist.
Social impact work should begin with a focus on the individual being served or helped, much like human-centered design. In analytics modeling, the client, customer, beneficiary, or target population is called the “protagonist.” This is the human at the center of the design.
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02The Outcomes.
Next, the modeler identifies the desired outcome for the protagonist. The outcome must include either a direct, objective measurement or a measurable surrogate indicator.
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03Event Blocks.
Event blocks define the Protagonist Pathway: the series of conditions that must be true for the protagonist to reach the desired outcome. The pathway frames the problem from the protagonist’s perspective by asking what must happen for that outcome to occur. By examining these required steps, the modeler can see where the pathway breaks down and where an intervention may be needed.
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04Activity Blocks.
Once the problem is framed, the modeler begins to model the theory of change: one or more activities that modify the step in the Protagonist Pathway where the intervention is meant to act.

Additional blocks

For more complicated systems, these additional blocks can help:

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01Resource Block.
This is where resources, such as money or labor, enter the model. Impact is a measure of the outcome produced by those input resources.
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02AND Block.
An explicit relationship that shows the probability of an event occurring when two or more previous steps must all be true.
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03OR Block.
An explicit relationship that shows the probability of an event occurring when any one of two or more previous steps is true.
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04NOT Block.
Makes it explicit that a following event acts on the case where a previous step did NOT occur.
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05Branch Block.
Lets the modeler divide resources or protagonists onto different pathways.

Putting it all together

Here is how the pieces combine, step by step, in an example bed net program:

01Set up the protagonist and the outcome.
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02Build the Protagonist Pathway with a series of event blocks.
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03Identify which step of the pathway you are going to improve.
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04Diagram the activities the program will carry out to effect the change.
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05Add the resources the activities need.
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Step 02

Quantify the model

Description coming soon.

Step 03

Visualize the results

Description coming soon.

Build your first theory of change in an afternoon.

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